Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Michael Pettis on Chinese economy

"In fact, I would argue that “the end of China’s stellar growth story” has already occurred, and occurred quite a long time ago. Growth in the Chinese economy has collapsed, but growth in economic activity has not collapsed (let us assume, with Grenville, that somehow the reduction in GDP growth from over 10 percent to 6.5 percent does not represent a slowdown in economic activity). The growth in economic activity has instead been propped up by the acceleration in credit growth and by the failure to write down investments that have created economic activity without having created economic value. In that case, high GDP growth levels simply disguise the seeming collapse of underlying economic growth in a way that has happened many times before—always in the late stages of similar apparent investment-driven growth miracles." says Michael Pettis in Is China’s Economy Growing as Fast as China’s GDP? P.S. Michael Pettis mentions a book by Diane Coyle on GDP. Here is a Discussion With her about the book.

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